Tomorrow's lines.
Today's edge.
Every projection begins with market probabilities, removes the vig, models the game, and publishes only positive expected value. Every pick shows its full reasoning and is tracked for EV and closing-line value.
SYNCING…
Time advantage is real.We measure it.
Live board
+EV picks
Mon, Sep 28, 2026
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No analysis published yet
Odds and probable pitchers may still be firming up — the pipeline re-runs through the afternoon and closing window.
System architecture
The BiffBet Model
Every projection begins with market probabilities, removes the vig, models the game, and publishes only positive expected value.
- Active
Market probabilities
Best moneyline price per side across the configured books.
- Active
Vig removal
The juice comes out — the de-vigged market is the sharp baseline.
- Transparent
Win-probability model
A transparent weighted sum: starting pitcher, bullpen, lineup, park, home field, and recent form — every component visible on every pick.
- Active
Market anchor
The model is blended toward the de-vigged market. It expresses a bounded tilt, never a hot take.
- +EV only
Edge detection
Only positive expected value past the threshold gets published. Quiet days are part of the discipline.
- Capped
Bet sizing
Quarter-Kelly with hard tier caps; context haircuts size the bet down before it sizes up.
- Verified
CLV tracking
Opening price frozen at pick time, closing line captured near first pitch. Beating the close is the long-run skill signal.