+EV MLB moneyline · starting-pitcher focused

Tomorrow's lines.
Today's edge.

Every projection begins with market probabilities, removes the vig, models the game, and publishes only positive expected value. Every pick shows its full reasoning and is tracked for EV and closing-line value.

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+EV picks

Mon, Jul 27, 2026

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates · 6:40 PM ET

Pittsburgh Pirates (home)

Merrill Kelly vs Mitch Keller

Projected 5.1 – 6.7 · total 11.8

Stable edgeLeanLean: a small bet (Adjusted EV 2–5%). Lower conviction; stake capped at 0.5% of bankroll.Projected lineupSharps fade 2.0ppYou're betting against the sharp books' consensus on this side by this many percentage points. Higher = more contrarian to the smartest money (already penalized in Adjusted EV).-109
Raw EVRaw expected value: the model's edge from its win probability vs the price, before any context adjustments. +5% ≈ you'd net 5% of stake per bet long-run if the model is right.+3.2%
Adj EVAdjusted EV: Raw EV after small context haircuts/boosts (sharp support/fade, projected lineup, fragile edge). This is the number used to size the bet.+3.2%
ModelThe model's win probability for this side, after blending toward the market. Used to compute EV.53.8%
MarketThe market's fair win probability for this side — the book's moneyline with the vig (juice) removed.49.9%
KellyRecommended stake as a fraction of bankroll, from the Kelly criterion (quarter-Kelly, then capped by the bet tier).0.5%
ConfModel confidence (0–100): data completeness, pitcher sample size, edge magnitude, and how much the model's components agree.69
CLVClosing Line Value: how much better your bet price was than the closing line. Positive = you beat the close — the key long-run skill signal.+0.0%
SizingsmallKelly 0.5% 0.9%

adj EV 3.2% in lean range [2%, 5%)

Show model breakdown ▾

Dynamic adjustments

Base win prob (home): 50.7%

  • Starting pitcherrate H=4.89(statcast_rate) A=6.21(statcast_rate)+8.85%
  • Bullpenrelief FIP H=4.45 A=3.91-1.21%
  • Bullpen availabilityH 3/3 leverage arms available (+0.0%); A 3/3 leverage arms available (+0.0%)+0.00%
  • LineupLINEUP NOT POSTED YETH projected lineup; A projected lineup+0.00%
  • Park / offensePF=99 wRC+ H=111 A=97+0.00%
  • Home field+0.025 home+2.50%
  • Recent formxwOBAcon H 30d=0.429/season=0.388 | A 14d=0.387/30d=0.457/season=0.441 (normal cap +/-1.5%)+0.31%

Market intelligence

Blend (mid · data conf 83): model 61.2% × 0.35 + market 49.9% → 53.8% (home, used for EV)

Open -109 → Close -109 · CLV 0.0%

Sharps (n=3): 51.9% home · Squares (n=3): 51.0% home · S−Sq +0.8pp · dispersion 0.8pp

Model passed · below EV threshold

10 games

Boston Red Sox @ Athletics · 9:40 PM ET

Lean Boston Red Sox (away)

Below threshold after adjustments

Proj 4.8 – 3.4

-175

Adj EV

+1.0%

raw +1.0%

Model

64.3%

Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets · 7:10 PM ET

Lean Atlanta Braves (away)

Below threshold after adjustments

Proj 4.5 – 3.9

-108

Adj EV

+0.7%

raw +0.7%

Model

52.3%

Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels · 9:38 PM ET

Lean Los Angeles Angels (home)

Below threshold after adjustments

Proj 4.1 – 4.8

-109

Adj EV

+0.3%

raw +0.3%

Model

52.3%

Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants · 9:45 PM ET

Lean Milwaukee Brewers (away)

Below EV threshold (no edge)

Proj 4.8 – 4.4

-136

Adj EV

-0.0%

raw -0.0%

Model

57.6%

Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins · 6:40 PM ET

Lean Philadelphia Phillies (away)

Below EV threshold (no edge)

Proj 4.4 – 3.4

-191

Adj EV

-2.3%

raw -2.3%

Model

64.2%

Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals · 6:45 PM ET

Lean Washington Nationals (home)

Below EV threshold (no edge)

Proj 4.7 – 5.6

-120

Adj EV

-3.9%

raw -2.9%

Model

53.0%

Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers · 6:40 PM ET

Lean Detroit Tigers (home)

Below EV threshold (no edge)

Proj 3.8 – 4.1

-120

Adj EV

-3.0%

raw -3.0%

Model

52.9%

Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals · 7:45 PM ET

Lean Chicago Cubs (away)

Below EV threshold (no edge)

Proj 5.2 – 4.7

-120

Adj EV

-4.9%

raw -3.9%

Model

52.4%

Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds · 7:10 PM ET

Lean Cincinnati Reds (home)

Below EV threshold (no edge)

Proj 3.8 – 4.8

-167

Adj EV

-4.3%

raw -4.3%

Model

59.8%

Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers · 2:35 PM ET

Lean Texas Rangers (home)

Below EV threshold (no edge)

Proj 4.6 – 4.1

+113

Adj EV

-4.3%

raw -4.3%

Model

44.9%

System architecture

The BiffBet Model

Every projection begins with market probabilities, removes the vig, models the game, and publishes only positive expected value.

Model v88

  1. Market probabilities

    Best moneyline price per side across the configured books.

    Active

  2. Vig removal

    The juice comes out — the de-vigged market is the sharp baseline.

    Active

  3. Win-probability model

    A transparent weighted sum: starting pitcher, bullpen, lineup, park, home field, and recent form — every component visible on every pick.

    Transparent

  4. Market anchor

    The model is blended toward the de-vigged market. It expresses a bounded tilt, never a hot take.

    Active

  5. Edge detection

    Only positive expected value past the threshold gets published. Quiet days are part of the discipline.

    +EV only

  6. Bet sizing

    Quarter-Kelly with hard tier caps; context haircuts size the bet down before it sizes up.

    Capped

  7. CLV tracking

    Opening price frozen at pick time, closing line captured near first pitch. Beating the close is the long-run skill signal.

    Verified